IN A SERIOUS development, Washington seems to have changed its attitude towards Pakistan after using it as a frontline state in the war against terror. Repeating its old habit of using Pakistan and dumping it, Washington has showed clear bias by giving the green signal to the Northern Alliance to occupy Kabul. And the irony is that despite rhetoric against terrorism, Washington is cooperating with the terrorist warlords of the Northern Alliance whose past is an open chapter to all and sundry.
IN A SERIOUS development, Washington seems to have changed its attitude towards Pakistan after using it as a frontline state in the war against terror. Repeating its old habit of using Pakistan and dumping it, Washington has showed clear bias by giving the green signal to the Northern Alliance to occupy Kabul. And the irony is that despite rhetoric against terrorism, Washington is cooperating with the terrorist warlords of the Northern Alliance whose past is an open chapter to all and sundry.
Later, the US special Forces, supported by B-52s bombers, gunship helicopters, Stealth, etc have enabled the Northern Alliance to defeat the Pushtoon commanders and retake their traditional areas. Now, the Northern Alliance is approaching the border areas with Pakistan.
According to the CNN in a few days the US commandos and superior air power has enabled the Northern Alliance to control 80 per cent of Afghanistan. Many now believe that with the US forces deep inside Afghanistan, using Afghan air bases and territories in its war against Taliban, Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida, Pakistan has become redundant for the strategists in Washington. Other pessimistic people go to the extreme of saying that Washington would go to the next phase that would include imposing India as a regional superpower in the region. In this regard, the United States is paving the way for the emergence of India by terming jihadi groups in occupied Kashmir as terrorist organization. The logic of Washington has changed facts upside down.
The atrocities of the Indian Army are forgotten while the struggle of the Kashmiri people has become a form of terrorism! The picture is more bleak for the Opposition leaders who believe that Pak nuclear and missile assets, Kashmir and ISI are the next US targets. Thus, the dramatic retreat of Taliban without firing a single shot and the fall of Kabul in the hands of the warlords of Northern Alliance have initiated the US scheme of dumping Pakistan. The entire process implies an irreversible decline in Pakistan’s fortunes. Even Pentagon seems to have abandoned Pakistan as evident from the transformation in the military thinking of Pentagon.
Now, the US war plans have begun to transform in unpredictable ways. It should be noted that fairly quickly after September 11, the US Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, outlined the principle that the weight of the different partners in the international coalition against terrorism would rise and fall according to circumstances on the ground. Rumsfeld declared:
“This war will not be waged by a grand alliance united for the single purpose of defeating an axis of hostile powers. Instead, it will involve floating coalitions of countries which may change and evolve.” The Americans shocked Pakistan by swiftly changing attitude when their war started moving into a different phase. In no time the US President, George Bush ignored his proclaimed stance that no single faction should be allowed to control Kabul in the interim period. Having seen the rout of Taliban in Afghanistan, Bush quickly gave the green signal to the Northern Alliance to go for the kill in Kabul. Thus the crucial role that Pakistan played in the first phase of the war, which was absolutely crucial for the US has quickly evaporated.
In closing the sanctuary that the Taliban enjoyed in Pakistan, and in providing physical military access to Afghanistan and gaining ground intelligence, Islamabad had a pivotal role. Pakistani decision makers made a blunder when they did not make a deal with the Americans. No guarantees were sought. The Americans were so much in control that they even refused to share with Pakistan any information on their military plans and operations. Pakistan was in total darkness regarding the actual aims and objectives of the war against terrorism and the defined American long-term agenda or its tactical moves on the battlefield. As the US finds space in Afghanistan itself through the victory of the Northern Alliance, Washington has far more options and its dependence on Pakistan has begun to reduce.
In shaping the future outcomes in Afghanistan, the US will have no interest in giving undue importance to Pakistan’s goals in Kabul. But geography, if nothing else, makes Pakistan always relevant in Afghanistan. In the immediate context, Pakistan will remain important especially when the Americans fully realize that if they dump Gen Musharraf, they could well find another Mullah Omar in Pakistan.
Later, the US special Forces, supported by B-52s bombers, gunship helicopters, Stealth, etc have enabled the Northern Alliance to defeat the Pushtoon commanders and retake their traditional areas. Now, the Northern Alliance is approaching the border areas with Pakistan.
According to the CNN in a few days the US commandos and superior air power has enabled the Northern Alliance to control 80 per cent of Afghanistan. Many now believe that with the US forces deep inside Afghanistan, using Afghan air bases and territories in its war against Taliban, Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida, Pakistan has become redundant for the strategists in Washington. Other pessimistic people go to the extreme of saying that Washington would go to the next phase that would include imposing India as a regional superpower in the region. In this regard, the United States is paving the way for the emergence of India by terming jihadi groups in occupied Kashmir as terrorist organization. The logic of Washington has changed facts upside down.
The struggle of the Kashmiri people has become a form of terrorism! The picture is more bleak for the Opposition leaders who believe that Pak nuclear and missile assets, Kashmir and ISI are the next US targets. Thus, the dramatic retreat of Taliban without firing a single shot and the fall of Kabul in the hands of the warlords of Northern Alliance have initiated the US scheme of dumping Pakistan. The entire process implies an irreversible decline in Pakistan’s fortunes. Even Pentagon seems to have abandoned Pakistan as evident from the transformation in the military thinking of Pentagon.
Now, the US war plans have begun to transform in unpredictable ways. It should be noted that fairly quickly after September 11, the US Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, outlined the principle that the weight of the different partners in the international coalition against terrorism would rise and fall according to circumstances on the ground. Rumsfeld declared:
“This war will not be waged by a grand alliance united for the single purpose of defeating an axis of hostile powers. Instead, it will involve floating coalitions of countries which may change and evolve.” The Americans shocked Pakistan by swiftly changing attitude when their war started moving into a different phase. In no time the US President, George Bush ignored his proclaimed stance that no single faction should be allowed to control Kabul in the interim period. Having seen the rout of Taliban in Afghanistan, Bush quickly gave the green signal to the Northern Alliance to go for the kill in Kabul. Thus the crucial role that Pakistan played in the first phase of the war, which was absolutely crucial for the US has quickly evaporated.
In closing the sanctuary that the Taliban enjoyed in Pakistan, and in providing physical military access to Afghanistan and gaining ground intelligence, Islamabad had a pivotal role. Pakistani decision makers made a blunder when they did not make a deal with the Americans. No guarantees were sought. The Americans were so much in control that they even refused to share with Pakistan any information on their military plans and operations. Pakistan was in total darkness regarding the actual aims and objectives of the war against terrorism and the defined American long-term agenda or its tactical moves on the battlefield. As the US finds space in Afghanistan itself through the victory of the Northern Alliance, Washington has far more options and its dependence on Pakistan has begun to reduce.
In shaping the future outcomes in Afghanistan, the US will have no interest in giving undue importance to Pakistan’s goals in Kabul. But geography, if nothing else, makes Pakistan always relevant in Afghanistan. In the immediate context, Pakistan will remain important especially when the Americans fully realize that if they dump Gen Musharraf, they could well find another Mullah Omar in Pakistan.
Modified version of an article published in Pakistan Newspaper PakObserver. Though things for Pakistan are not that bleak as this author says, US did dump Pakistan on few grounds. This will result in Pakistan to harbouring Taliban on their land once again.
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